Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Valuing drinking water provision as an ecosystem service in the neuse river basin

The valuation of ecosystem services such as drinking water provision is of growing national and international interest. The cost of drinking water provision is directly linked to the quality of its raw water input, which is itself affected by upstream land use patterns. This analysis employs the benefit transfer method to quantify the economic benefits of water quality improvements for drinking water production in the Neuse River Basin in North Carolina. Two benefit transfer approaches, value transfer and function transfer, are implemented by combining the results of four previously published studies with data collected from eight Neuse Basin water treatment plants. The mean net present value of the cost reduction estimates for the entire Neuse Basin ranged from $2.7 million to $16.6 million for a 30% improvement in water quality over a 30-year period. The value-transfer approach tended to produce larger expected benefits than the function-transfer approach, but both approaches produced similar results despite the differences in their methodologies, time frames, study sites, and assumptions. © 2010 ASCE.

King Democracy: Do Democratic Nations Mitigate Conflict Over Transboundary Freshwater Resources Better Than Other Nations?

The prospect of water wars and conflict over water are ideas that are frequently dramatized in media and also studied by scholars. It is well-established that bona fide wars are not started over water resources, but conflict over water does exist and is not well understood. One would suppose, as scholars often do, that dyads composed of two democratic nations would be the best at mitigating conflict and promoting cooperation over freshwater resources. General conflict research supports that supposition, as does the argument that democracies must be best at avoiding conflicts over resources because they excel at distributing public goods. This study provides empirical evidence showing how interstate dyads composed of various governance types conflict and cooperate over general water and water quantity issues relative to each other. After evaluating the water conflict mitigating ability of democratic-democratic, democratic-autocratic, and autocratic-autocratic dyads, this study found that democracy-autocracy dyads are less likely to cooperate over general water issues and water quantity issues than the other two dyad types. Nothing certain can be said about how the three dyad types compare to each other in terms of likelihood to conflict over water quantity issues. However, two-autocracy dyads seem to be most likely to cooperate over water quantity issues. These findings support the established belief that democratic-autocratic pairs struggle to cooperate while also encouraging greater scrutiny of the belief that democracies must be best at cooperating over water resources.

Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.